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Forecast-Simple forecasting methods

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PROBLEM DEFINITION Primary objective of the analysis is to find the future sales of a product, so accordingly the inventory of product is managed according to future demand. Data: For confidentiality purposes the name of the product is not revealed. Sales Data set provider : Agri Village Products(M) SDN BHD Software’s used for analysis: R, Excel FORECAST(ETS) Calculates or predicts a future value based on existing (historical) values by using the AAA version of the Exponential Smoothing ( ETS ) algorithm. The predicted value is a continuation of the historical values in the specified target date, which should be a continuation of the timeline. NAIVE FORECASTING Estimating  technique  in which the last period's actuals are used as this period's  forecast , without adjusting them or attempting to establish causal factors. It is used only for comparison with the  forecasts  generated by the better (sophisticated) techniques. ...
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Basic Analysis - Part 1

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PROBLEM DEFINITION Primary objective of the analysis is to find the future sales of a product, so accordingly the inventory of product is managed according to future demand. Data: For confidentiality purposes the name of the product is not revealed. Sales Data set provider : Agri Village Products(M) SDN BHD Software’s used for analysis: R, Excel Why Forecast A forecast of demand won’t guarantee a successful strategy. But without it, decisions on investment, marketing support, and other resource allocations will be based on hidden, unconscious assumptions about industry wide requirements, and they’ll often be wrong. By gauging total-market demand explicitly, you have a better chance of controlling your company’s destiny. Merely going through the process has merit for a management team. Instead of just coming out with pat answers, numbers, and targets, the team is forced to rethink the competitive environment. Simple scatter plot Scatter plots are import...
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