Basic Analysis - Part 1

PROBLEM DEFINITION

Primary objective of the analysis is to find the future sales of a product, so accordingly the inventory of product is managed according to future demand.

Data: For confidentiality purposes the name of the product is not revealed.

Sales Data set provider : Agri Village Products(M) SDN BHD

Software’s used for analysis: R, Excel

Why Forecast

A forecast of demand won’t guarantee a successful strategy. But without it, decisions on investment, marketing support, and other resource allocations will be based on hidden, unconscious assumptions about industry wide requirements, and they’ll often be wrong. By gauging total-market demand explicitly, you have a better chance of controlling your company’s destiny. Merely going through the process has merit for a management team. Instead of just coming out with pat answers, numbers, and targets, the team is forced to rethink the competitive environment.

Simple scatter plot

Scatter plots are important in statistics because they can show the extent of correlation

        

Time series analysis

Time series analysis is a statistical technique that deals with time series data, or trend analysis.  Time series data means that data is in a series of particular time periods or intervals.

Trend Line

A linear trend-line is a best-fit straight line that is used with simple linear data sets. Your data is linear if the pattern in its data points resembles a line. A linear trend-line usually shows that something is increasing or decreasing at a steady rate.

Summary Statistics

Minimum product sold during the period time   =  108

Maximum product sold during the period time  =   414

Average product sold during the period time    =   204

Standard deviation    =    65.30

Median                      =    192